State National Blog

Credit Unions at a Crossroads: Shifts, Risks, and Opportunities — Part 1

Written by State National | 1/28/26 4:16 PM

The “Wait and See” Era Is Over

Credit union leaders are no strangers to change. But two major forces shifting the direction of the financial industry today — AI and emerging payment technologies — are different. 

These structural changes aren’t incremental updates. They represent a fundamental transformation in how work gets done, how money moves, and how members expect to engage with their credit unions. 

Expert Perspectives on the Path Ahead

At the most recent meeting of the State National Client Advisory Council (CAC), Filene Fellow Dr. Lamont Black, Professor of Finance at DePaul University, delivered a clear message: The next few years will be pivotal. 

Credit unions don’t need to overhaul their entire operations overnight, but they do need to understand what’s coming and why “wait and see” is no longer a viable strategy.

AI Is Moving Beyond Experimentation

AI adoption is no longer confined to niche use cases or isolated teams. Across industries, organizations arebe shifting from limited automation to company-wide applications — particularly with the rise of generative and agentic AI. 

For credit unions, this marks a transition: from AI as a back-office tool to AI as a capability that touches nearly every role. 

What defines this moment isn’t just the technology, it’s the accessibility. Tools like ChatGPT and Copilot have made AI widely useable for nearly every employee, accelerating adoption faster than the slow, IT-led rollouts of the past. 

The Risk of Delay

That pace matters. As AI becomes embedded in daily workflows, the danger for credit unions isn’t a lack of tools — it’s a lack of readiness. 

This is a fundamental change in how knowledge work happens, and organizations that delay engagement risk falling behind as the pace accelerates.

 

Stablecoins: From Theory to Regulatory Reality

Alongside AI, stablecoins are emerging as a second major force shaping the future of financial services. These digital currencies, designed to maintain a one-to-one value with the US dollar, combine blockchain efficiency with price stability. 

With the passage of the GENIUS Act (and similar legislative frameworks), the conversation has shifted from if to when. Industry timelines point toward 2026-2027 as a critical window for regulatory clarity and mainstream adoption. 

Why this matters for credit unions

Stablecoins introduce an alternative payment rail that operates outside traditional card networks and ACH systems. Over time, this shift could result in: 

  • Reduced transaction costs: Merchants may favor stablecoins to avoid traditional fee structures.
  • Behavioral shifts: Consumers may move toward digital wallets that bypass traditional accounts.
  • Income pressure: Even a modest shift in transaction volume could materially affect interchange-based non-interest income.

Major players are already moving. Companies like PayPal have begun integrating stablecoins into their checkout experiences, and large retailers are exploring their own tokens. 

These developments won’t replace traditional payments overnight, but they do introduce strategic risk if ignored.

 

The Impact on Payments, Revenue, and Competitive Pressure
The emergence of new payment rails isn’t about immediate disruption — it’s about cumulative impact. As stablecoins gain traction, transactions that once ran through card networks may increasingly shift elsewhere.

This trend raises significant questions regarding:

  1. Consumer protections and fraud prevention in a decentralized environment.
  2. The role of credit unions in providing value-added services on top of new rails.
  3. Maintaining member relevance when the “top of mind” wallet is no longer a physical card.

These aren’t just tactical hurdles — they’re strategic challenges that benefit from early awareness, even if execution comes later.


Why Timing Is Critical

Credit unions have long been thoughtful adopters, preferring to learn from early movers before committing resources. But the pace of change around AI and the maturation of digital payments are compressing those traditional timelines.

Competitors are experimenting in parallel. Member expectations are shaped by non-financial brands. Regulatory frameworks are already in motion.

Future-proofing doesn’t mean rushing into every new technology. It means understanding the trajectory early enough to make intentional decisions before options narrow. 

Looking Ahead
AI and stablecoins aren’t isolated trends. Together, they signal a broader shift in how financial services operate, compete, and deliver value. 

For credit unions, the immediate isn’t full implementation, it’s clarity:

  • Clarity on what’s changing
  • Clarity on where specific risks and opportunities may emerge
  • Clarity on how the organization prepares to respond

 

In Part 2 of this series, we’ll move from awareness to action and explore how credit union leaders are approaching strategy, alignment, and execution. 

"State National is a proud sponsor of Filene's Center of Excellence for The Credit Union of the Future. We recognize the value of Filene’s commitment and passion — and it makes this respected organization a clear choice as a thought leadership ally to help State National support our credit union partners." 

 

Filene is a credit union and consumer finance think tank headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin. As an Inner Circle member and research sponsor, we provide support for their mission to connect credit unions with insights and innovations to change people’s lives.

 

Subscribe to the SNC Spotlight for upcoming original research from Filene’s The Credit Union of the Future CoE!

 

You can also connect with Dr. Black on LinkedIn for insights into his upcoming research.